The Other Halving
By Scott Melker who is known the Wolf of All Streets
Litecoin, a cornerstone in the realm of digital currencies, has once again come under the spotlight with its recent halving. Such intrinsic protocol events, occurring roughly every four years, underscore the cryptocurrency's resilience and its foundational role in the broader digital currency ecosystem.
On August 2, coinciding with the mining of block 2,520,000, the reward for miners was reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 Litecoin (LTC) per block. These halvings are more than just technical occurrences. They possess profound implications for Litecoin's economic structure and also ripple through the market sentiment, often with significant anticipation.
Historically, halvings for leading cryptocurrencies like Litecoin and Bitcoin have dual implications. They serve as a mechanism to control inflation by curtailing the influx of new coins into circulation. Additionally, they highlight the inherent scarcity of the digital asset, often fuelling anticipatory buzz in the market. Even though immediate price reactions might vary, over extended periods, halvings have generally been linked to price appreciation.
Litecoin, often characterized as the "silver to Bitcoin’s gold," stands out with its distinctive journey since its introduction. Charlie Lee's vision in 2011 gave birth to Litecoin, which he perceived as a nimbler version of Bitcoin. With a block generation time of merely 2.5 minutes, in contrast to Bitcoin's 10 minutes, Litecoin promises faster transaction confirmations.
Charlie Lee, ahead of this notable event, humorously shone a light on the inconsistencies among various online halving countdowns. He tweeted, “This is funny. I googled 'Litecoin Block Halving Countdown' and checked the first 4 hits. The ETA for the halving is all over the map! From my quick calculation, I believe NiceHash's countdown is the most accurate. I expect the halving to occur in about a 1 day, 2 hours, and 30…” (@SatoshiLite) on August 1, 2023.
While price movements are an integral aspect of the crypto discourse, Litecoin's pertinence in the expansive cryptocurrency arena cannot be sidestepped. With its increasing clout as a preferred payment alternative, Litecoin is making its presence felt. Recent figures indicate both Litecoin and Bitcoin Lightning payments achieving record volumes on several platforms. In some instances, by June, Litecoin even outpaced Bitcoin.
The embrace of Litecoin transcends established markets like North America, Europe, and the UK. In emerging territories, particularly Africa, Litecoin adoption is surging, reflecting a global shift where cryptocurrencies are gaining an edge over traditional banking systems. This trend in Africa could potentially provide insights into future patterns in regions like Latin America.
As of now, Litecoin stands as the 12th largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, boasting a valuation of $6.8 billion. It sees daily trade activities around the ballpark of null.14 billion, indicative of strong engagement with the coin. Out of its maximum potential cap of 84 million LTC, a staggering 73.5 million coins are already in circulation.
However, not all is rosy. The anticipation around the recent halving event took Litecoin’s price on a roller-coaster ride, witnessing a sharp ascent in early July, only to face challenges in maintaining the bullish momentum. This culminated in the coin's price taking a hit post-halving, contradicting some bullish expectations. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Regardless of such market dynamics, the halving event serves to spotlight Litecoin's meticulously crafted monetary structure and its burgeoning influence on a global scale. As it continues to make inroads across diverse regions, Litecoin's stature as a pioneering digital currency looks poised for further growth.
Cathie Wood’s Predictions Aren’t High Enough
Cathie Wood's recent predictions for Bitcoin's value in 2030—null.25 million in a bullish scenario and $625,000 as a baseline—have sent ripples throughout the crypto community. These estimates don't materialize from thin air; they involve intricate quantitative analyses. Simplistically, one might imagine assembling a team of quants, brainstorming a variety of theories, running numerous Excel models, and voilà: a groundbreaking Bitcoin price prediction emerges.
Of course, such a portrayal is a vast oversimplification of an intricate procedure. I hold profound respect for Cathie Wood and the invaluable insights she has imparted to the financial world. Inspired by her, I thought, why not embark on my own Bitcoin forecasting adventure?
While I may not have a battalion of PhD-level quants or seasoned Wall Street veterans on speed dial, I bring forth a unique perspective. Recognizing that price predictions are a formidable endeavor, I've chosen to delve into the AUM (Assets Under Management) of the top 10 largest asset managers. I'm keen to investigate the potential ramifications if 1%, 5%, or 10% of their assets were reallocated to Bitcoin.
HERE… WE… GO…
For starters, we need to know the AUM of the institutions and what 1%, 5%, and 10% represent.
BlackRock - $9,090,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $90 billion
• 5% - $454.5 billion
• 10% - $909 billion
Vanguard - $7,600,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $76 billion
• 5% - $380 billion
• 10% - $760 billion
Fidelity Management & Research - $4,240,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $42.4 billion
• 5% - $212 billion
• 10% - $424 billion
State Street Global Advisors - $3,600,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $36 billion
• 5% - $180 billion
• 10% - $360 billion
Morgan Stanley - $3,131,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $31.31 billion
• 5% - $156.55 billion
• 10% - $313.1 billion
JP Morgan Chase- $3,006,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $30.06 billion
• 5% - $150.3 billion
• 10% - $300.6 billion
Goldman Sachs - $2,672,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $26.72 billion
• 5% - $133.6 billion
• 10% - $267.2 billion
Credit Agricole - $2,660,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $26.60 billion
• 5% - $133 billion
• 10% - $266 billion
Alianz Group - $2,300,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $23 billion
• 5% - $115 billion
• 10% - $230 billion
Capital Group - null,350,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $13.5 billion
• 5% - $67.5 billion
• 10% - $135 billion
Now for the fun part.
The Grand Totals:
• 1% - $378.49 billion
• 5% - null.982 trillion
• 10% - $4.164 trillion
If The Grand Totals Were Added To The Entire Crypto Market Capitalization
• 1% - null.57 trillion (30.8% increase)
• 5% - $3.18 trillion (165% increase)
• 10% - $5.36 trillion (346.6% increase)
If The Grand Totals Were Added To Bitcoin’s Current Market Cap:
The current Bitcoin market cap when I calculated this was $579 billion - keep in mind this figure fluctuates.
• 1% - $957.56 billion (65.2% increase) - Bitcoin is $49,560
• 5% - $2.56 trillion (342.1% increase) - Bitcoin is $132,630
• 10% - $4.74 trillion (718.6% increase) - Bitcoin is $245,580
The current market cap is null.2 trillion
Cathie Wood’s Predictions Aren’t High Enough
Cathie Wood's recent predictions for Bitcoin's value in 2030—null.25 million in a bullish scenario and $625,000 as a baseline—have sent ripples throughout the crypto community. These estimates don't materialize from thin air; they involve intricate quantitative analyses. Simplistically, one might imagine assembling a team of quants, brainstorming a variety of theories, running numerous Excel models, and voilà: a groundbreaking Bitcoin price prediction emerges.
Of course, such a portrayal is a vast oversimplification of an intricate procedure. I hold profound respect for Cathie Wood and the invaluable insights she has imparted to the financial world. Inspired by her, I thought, why not embark on my own Bitcoin forecasting adventure?
While I may not have a battalion of PhD-level quants or seasoned Wall Street veterans on speed dial, I bring forth a unique perspective. Recognizing that price predictions are a formidable endeavor, I've chosen to delve into the AUM (Assets Under Management) of the top 10 largest asset managers. I'm keen to investigate the potential ramifications if 1%, 5%, or 10% of their assets were reallocated to Bitcoin.
HERE… WE… GO…
For starters, we need to know the AUM of the institutions and what 1%, 5%, and 10% represent.
BlackRock - $9,090,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $90 billion
• 5% - $454.5 billion
• 10% - $909 billion
Vanguard - $7,600,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $76 billion
• 5% - $380 billion
• 10% - $760 billion
Fidelity Management & Research - $4,240,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $42.4 billion
• 5% - $212 billion
• 10% - $424 billion
State Street Global Advisors - $3,600,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $36 billion
• 5% - $180 billion
• 10% - $360 billion
Morgan Stanley - $3,131,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $31.31 billion
• 5% - $156.55 billion
• 10% - $313.1 billion
JP Morgan Chase- $3,006,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $30.06 billion
• 5% - $150.3 billion
• 10% - $300.6 billion
Goldman Sachs - $2,672,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $26.72 billion
• 5% - $133.6 billion
• 10% - $267.2 billion
Credit Agricole - $2,660,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $26.60 billion
• 5% - $133 billion
• 10% - $266 billion
Alianz Group - $2,300,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $23 billion
• 5% - $115 billion
• 10% - $230 billion
Capital Group - null,350,000,000,000 AUM
• 1% - $13.5 billion
• 5% - $67.5 billion
• 10% - $135 billion
Now for the fun part.
The Grand Totals:
• 1% - $378.49 billion
• 5% - null.982 trillion
• 10% - $4.164 trillion
If The Grand Totals Were Added To The Entire Crypto Market Capitalization
• 1% - null.57 trillion (30.8% increase)
• 5% - $3.18 trillion (165% increase)
• 10% - $5.36 trillion (346.6% increase)
If The Grand Totals Were Added To Bitcoin’s Current Market Cap:
The current Bitcoin market cap when I calculated this was $579 billion - keep in mind this figure fluctuates.
• 1% - $957.56 billion (65.2% increase) - Bitcoin is $49,560
• 5% - $2.56 trillion (342.1% increase) - Bitcoin is $132,630
• 10% - $4.74 trillion (718.6% increase) - Bitcoin is $245,580
The current market cap is null.2 trillion