$ARB PRICE SCENARIOS 🦅🔵

Investor price* → Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07

Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30

Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65

Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20

Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50

@Arbitrum Thread 🧵 - Let's estimate 🧠

$ARB is launching in 6 days

Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023

Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)

How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?

1/18

Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share

• Market share: 55%

• TVL: $3.7B

2/18

Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:

• Total & initial circulating supply

• Market Benchmarks

• Percentage airdropped

3/18

TOKENOMICS

• Team & Advisors: 26.94%

• Investors: 17.53%

• Treasury: 42.78%

• Airdrop to users: 11.62%

• Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%

4/18

TOKEN SUPPLY

• Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)

• Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)

~12% of total supply

User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away

5/18

AIRDROP CRITERIA

• Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months

• Transaction frequency & interaction (4-100)

• Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions

• Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova

• Transaction value: $10k-$250k

• Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k

6/18

🔗 Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation

🚨 Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter

Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price 👇

7/18

FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING

• Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price

• Market cap = circulating supply * token price

With $ARB numbers:

FDV = 10B * token price

Market cap = 1.2B * token price

Token price = ❓

8/18

SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE

According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.

Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.

If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation 👀

9/18

The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:

• Polygon $MATIC

• Optimism $OP

• Fantom $FTM

• Solana $SOL

10/18

Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2

• TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)

• FDV: $10.8 billion

• Market cap: $800 million

If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08

11/18

Polygon $MATIC

• TVL: null.05 billion

• FDV: $11.8 billion

• Market cap: $10.7 billion

If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18

12/18

Fantom $FTM

• TVL: $445 million

• FDV: null.4 billion

• Market cap: null.2 billion

If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14

13/18

Solana $SOL

• TVL: $245 million

• Market cap: $7.7 billion

• FDV: $10.9 billion

If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09

14/18

Summarizing:

• $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08

• $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18

• $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14

• $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09

15/18

If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00

In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.

Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.

16/18

PRICE SCENARIOS

Pessimistic → Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30

Moderate → Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65

Optimistic → Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20

Ecstatic 🎉 → Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50

17/18

The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.

These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.

18/18

LIQUIDITY

Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.

At which price would you sell $ARB?

⚡️ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: t.me/OlimpioAlpha

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