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Entering play on Monday, the top four West teams are Denver, New Orleans, Memphis and Dallas. Is this the changing of the guard we're always waiting to talk about, or will the Warriors, Suns and Clippers eventually reassert themselves as the powers everyone expected them to be? Personally, I think these Pelicans, Nuggets and Grizzlies will finish 1-3 in some order. That doesn't mean they will be the teams to beat in the playoffs, but they'll be right there and the home-court advantage will be a big boost.
Does Philadelphia belong among the top-tier Eastern Conference contenders? Is the defense as stout as the numbers have looked? Will Tyrese Maxey's return be the jolt it should be on paper? There's a lot to like here, but I still don't love the shots the Sixers get in the tight possessions (their late-game numbers reflect this).
My confidence in James Harden teams is shaky at best. My confidence in a Doc Rivers team is shaky period. I really don't know what to make of this team beyond Joel Embiid being awesome, which is not a small thing. I love De'Anthony Melton and give me PJ Tucker in the playoffs all day. If Tobias Harris and Georges Niang are going to be this reliable from 3, that's a big deal. I'm still in wait-and-see mode. We'll know more over these next few months.
. Can Kings keep it going?
Entering play on Monday, the Kings are in the playoffs. Not the play-in. The playoffs. They're 19-16 with an offense that is decimal points outside the top five. Sacramento has't been to the playoffs since 2005-06. That's 16 years, the longest drought in the league. This is one of the most fun teams to watch with two All-Stars in Domantis Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox (whether they both actually make the team is another conversation -- see above -- but they both are All-Star players).
Unfortunately, the Warriors and Suns are currently beneath Sacramento. Holding those teams off will be quite the challenge. To me, the best bet for Sacramento is Dallas falling off and one of Warriors/Suns suffering more injury setbacks. But this is a good team. It isn't out of the question they they just outplay those teams over the next three months and hold onto a top-six seed. It will be a lot of fun to watch them try.
Presumed 2023 No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama recently said that he finds tanking for a better shot at a top draft pick to be a "weird strategy," going so far as to call it "unreasonable." It's the exact opposite. There's nothing weird or unreasonable about losing in the short term to put yourself in better position to win in the long term.
Eastern Conference: To me, there are 10 virtual locks at the moment: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Kyrie Irving, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young and Tyrese Haliburton. I could see Young getting left off if the Hawks slide, but the numbers are so great, the down shooting season notwithstanding.
Barring injury, one of the Miami guys (Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo) is getting in. If James Harden stays healthy, he's likely in. Add Jalen Brunson or Julius Randle from the Knicks, and you're already at 13, so one has to go before you even start talking about Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Dejounte Murray, Jarrett Allen or Myles Turner. Tight calls all over the place.
Western Conference: There are seven locks at the moment: Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry (assuming he gets back relatively soon), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. Devin Booker's status will depend on how long he remains out, but if he gets back in early February and picks up where he left off, he's almost a lock. Damian Lillard is in if he stays healthy. That's nine.
One of the Kings, either Domantas Sabonis or De'Aaron Fox, has to get in with how they have played. My bet is on Sabonis, if only because it's easier to fill a front-court spot without manipulating positions. That's 10 players, and we haven't even mentioned Paul George, Anthony Davis, Lauri Markannen, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane (who was looking like a lock prior to his injury and is back now), Mikal Bridges, Jerami Grant, Anthony Edwards or Deandre Ayton.
Teams have until 3 p.m. ET on Feb. 9 to make trades. Who will be the biggest name moved? If it were up to me, it would be Anthony Davis ... but the Lakers don't have the guts for that, so I digress. Nikola Vucevic? John Collins? I would categorize both those guys as likely to be traded, but that's been true of Collins for a while and nothing has come through yet. Same for Myles Turner and the Pacers.
Kyle Kuzma is a lock to hit free agency this summer (no way he's picking up his $13 million option), so might the Wizards move him before potentially losing him for nothing? Obi Toppin is a possibility to be moved out of New York. Bojan Bogdanovic is perhaps the most intriguing addition for a contender. Over the next five weeks, the NBA wires are going to be buzzing with rumors. We'll all try to sort out which ones might have the biggest impact on the postseason races.
As the calendar turns, you can make a strong case for at least six players as the current MVP frontrunner: Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant. Zion Williamson and/or Ja Morant could become a factor, as could Stephen Curry if the Warriors start climbing the seed ladder. Donovan Mitchell would be tough to deny if the Cavs were to win the East's top seed. This MVP class is obscenely stacked, and the margins are miniscule. It will be fascinating to watch it play out.