The Other Halving

By Scott Melker who is known the Wolf of All Streets

Litecoin, a cornerstone in the realm of digital currencies, has once again come under the spotlight with its recent halving. Such intrinsic protocol events, occurring roughly every four years, underscore the cryptocurrency's resilience and its foundational role in the broader digital currency ecosystem.

On August 2, coinciding with the mining of block 2,520,000, the reward for miners was reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 Litecoin (LTC) per block. These halvings are more than just technical occurrences. They possess profound implications for Litecoin's economic structure and also ripple through the market sentiment, often with significant anticipation.

Historically, halvings for leading cryptocurrencies like Litecoin and Bitcoin have dual implications. They serve as a mechanism to control inflation by curtailing the influx of new coins into circulation. Additionally, they highlight the inherent scarcity of the digital asset, often fuelling anticipatory buzz in the market. Even though immediate price reactions might vary, over extended periods, halvings have generally been linked to price appreciation.

Litecoin, often characterized as the "silver to Bitcoin’s gold," stands out with its distinctive journey since its introduction. Charlie Lee's vision in 2011 gave birth to Litecoin, which he perceived as a nimbler version of Bitcoin. With a block generation time of merely 2.5 minutes, in contrast to Bitcoin's 10 minutes, Litecoin promises faster transaction confirmations.

Charlie Lee, ahead of this notable event, humorously shone a light on the inconsistencies among various online halving countdowns. He tweeted, “This is funny. I googled 'Litecoin Block Halving Countdown' and checked the first 4 hits. The ETA for the halving is all over the map! From my quick calculation, I believe NiceHash's countdown is the most accurate. I expect the halving to occur in about a 1 day, 2 hours, and 30…” (@SatoshiLite) on August 1, 2023.

While price movements are an integral aspect of the crypto discourse, Litecoin's pertinence in the expansive cryptocurrency arena cannot be sidestepped. With its increasing clout as a preferred payment alternative, Litecoin is making its presence felt. Recent figures indicate both Litecoin and Bitcoin Lightning payments achieving record volumes on several platforms. In some instances, by June, Litecoin even outpaced Bitcoin.

The embrace of Litecoin transcends established markets like North America, Europe, and the UK. In emerging territories, particularly Africa, Litecoin adoption is surging, reflecting a global shift where cryptocurrencies are gaining an edge over traditional banking systems. This trend in Africa could potentially provide insights into future patterns in regions like Latin America.

As of now, Litecoin stands as the 12th largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, boasting a valuation of $6.8 billion. It sees daily trade activities around the ballpark of null.14 billion, indicative of strong engagement with the coin. Out of its maximum potential cap of 84 million LTC, a staggering 73.5 million coins are already in circulation.

However, not all is rosy. The anticipation around the recent halving event took Litecoin’s price on a roller-coaster ride, witnessing a sharp ascent in early July, only to face challenges in maintaining the bullish momentum. This culminated in the coin's price taking a hit post-halving, contradicting some bullish expectations. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Regardless of such market dynamics, the halving event serves to spotlight Litecoin's meticulously crafted monetary structure and its burgeoning influence on a global scale. As it continues to make inroads across diverse regions, Litecoin's stature as a pioneering digital currency looks poised for further growth.

Cathie Wood’s Predictions Aren’t High Enough

Cathie Wood's recent predictions for Bitcoin's value in 2030—null.25 million in a bullish scenario and $625,000 as a baseline—have sent ripples throughout the crypto community. These estimates don't materialize from thin air; they involve intricate quantitative analyses. Simplistically, one might imagine assembling a team of quants, brainstorming a variety of theories, running numerous Excel models, and voilà: a groundbreaking Bitcoin price prediction emerges.

Of course, such a portrayal is a vast oversimplification of an intricate procedure. I hold profound respect for Cathie Wood and the invaluable insights she has imparted to the financial world. Inspired by her, I thought, why not embark on my own Bitcoin forecasting adventure?

While I may not have a battalion of PhD-level quants or seasoned Wall Street veterans on speed dial, I bring forth a unique perspective. Recognizing that price predictions are a formidable endeavor, I've chosen to delve into the AUM (Assets Under Management) of the top 10 largest asset managers. I'm keen to investigate the potential ramifications if 1%, 5%, or 10% of their assets were reallocated to Bitcoin.

HERE… WE… GO…

For starters, we need to know the AUM of the institutions and what 1%, 5%, and 10% represent.

BlackRock - $9,090,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $90 billion

• 5% - $454.5 billion

• 10% - $909 billion

Vanguard - $7,600,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $76 billion

• 5% - $380 billion

• 10% - $760 billion

Fidelity Management & Research - $4,240,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $42.4 billion

• 5% - $212 billion

• 10% - $424 billion

State Street Global Advisors - $3,600,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $36 billion

• 5% - $180 billion

• 10% - $360 billion

Morgan Stanley - $3,131,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $31.31 billion

• 5% - $156.55 billion

• 10% - $313.1 billion

JP Morgan Chase- $3,006,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $30.06 billion

• 5% - $150.3 billion

• 10% - $300.6 billion

Goldman Sachs - $2,672,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $26.72 billion

• 5% - $133.6 billion

• 10% - $267.2 billion

Credit Agricole - $2,660,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $26.60 billion

• 5% -  $133 billion

• 10% - $266 billion

Alianz Group - $2,300,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $23 billion

• 5% - $115 billion

• 10% - $230 billion

Capital Group - null,350,000,000,000 AUM

• 1% - $13.5 billion

• 5% - $67.5 billion

• 10% - $135 billion

Now for the fun part.

The Grand Totals:

• 1% - $378.49 billion

• 5% - null.982 trillion

• 10% - $4.164 trillion

If The Grand Totals Were Added To The Entire Crypto Market Capitalization

• 1% - null.57 trillion (30.8% increase)

• 5% - $3.18 trillion (165% increase)

• 10% - $5.36 trillion (346.6% increase)

If The Grand Totals Were Added To Bitcoin’s Current Market Cap:

The current Bitcoin market cap when I calculated this was $579 billion - keep in mind this figure fluctuates.

• 1% - $957.56 billion (65.2% increase) - Bitcoin is $49,560

• 5% - $2.56 trillion (342.1% increase) - Bitcoin is $132,630

• 10% - $4.74 trillion (718.6% increase) - Bitcoin is $245,580

The current market cap is null.2 trillion

Bitcoin Will Be the Currency of AIs#1

By Scott Melker who is known the Wolf of All Streets

In the world of cryptocurrency, filtering out the 'noise' and focusing on the 'signal' can feel like an insurmountable task. Within this digital cacophony, a multitude of voices compete for attention, each promoting diverging ideas and perspectives. It is, therefore, no surprise that newcomers might quickly feel overwhelmed by this complex ecosystem and choose to abandon their crypto adventure prematurely.

Despite the pandemonium, a select few influential figures emerge whose opinions significantly influence the prevailing narrative in the cryptocurrency sphere. One such individual, a personal inspiration of mine, has maintained a somewhat clandestine status among the crypto ranks, despite his profound insights - Arthur Hayes.

For anyone with even the slightest interest in cryptocurrencies, neglecting to familiarize oneself with Arthur Hayes' work equates to a substantial missed opportunity. As a considerable amount of the information shared in this space draws from Hayes' insights, it seemed fitting to spotlight the master himself and delve into his latest piece, titled "Massa," published just recently.

For the uninitiated, Arthur Hayes is synonymous with Bitmex, a pioneering cryptocurrency exchange that embodied the adventurous spirit of early crypto with its daring derivative offerings. Bitmex was a haven for the most audacious investors - it was an all-or-nothing game of chance. After falling under heavy regulatory scrutiny in 2020, Hayes stepped away from Bitmex as it halted operations in the U.S. Thankfully, this was not the last we heard from him.

Ethereum Is Next

By Scott Melker who is known the Wolf of All Streets

Since last year's downturn, Bitcoin has seen significant positive developments. With its stellar performance, it remains at the forefront of the crypto race. Newly emerging Ordinals present an intriguing prospect for exploration, while Bitcoin continues to attract investors seeking alternative stores of value. On Wall Street, the race is on for a Bitcoin ETF approval. Recovering from a challenging 2022, Bitcoin has quickly embraced a bullish narrative, with the halving event still 293 days away.

I am bullish on Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin is achieving remarkable success, it would be unwise to overlook Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset, quietly making impressive strides. Ethereum has had an equally strong year, and the periods when it garners less attention while Bitcoin dominates are my favorite times to focus on it. Investors may be flocking to Bitcoin for very valid reasons, but Ethereum is poised to be the next hotspot, and I plan to be part of it.

Since hitting a low in November 2022, Bitcoin has nearly doubled in price, with a current increase of approximately 94.5%. During the same period, Ethereum's price has risen by about 72.7%. Bitcoin's lead, which was undoubtedly boosted by BlackRock, was already outpacing Ethereum by over 10% prior to the BlackRock's involvement. However, Ethereum's ability to stage impressive comebacks is a known fact.

On the supply side, Ethereum has been fluctuating between inflation and deflation throughout the year, exceeding zero issuance by a remarkably narrow margin. I expect Ethereum to move rapidly into deflationary issuance and remain there for some time as DeFi activity ramps up. Notably, the amount of Ethereum staked now exceeds the amount held on centralized exchanges.

This trend can be partly attributed to a broad shift away from exchanges, but the demand for Ethereum staking has significantly surpassed projections. Even the most optimistic Ethereum supporters did not foresee nearly 20% of its supply being staked at this stage, with predictions of this figure reaching 25% by year's end. Despite a considerable drop in yield as staking demand has surged, the high staking figures provide a substantial boost to supply-demand economics in terms of price. Once buying pressure begins to mount, the bidding war will be nothing short of spectacular.

As for investor confidence in Ethereum, the image above is quite telling. Isn't it fascinating how just a few months ago, the crypto community was doubtful about the execution of the Shanghai upgrade and the subsequent rise in staking figures? Now, doubts are emerging about Ethereum's ability to outperform Bitcoin. Once the naysayers run out of speculative elements to hold onto, the only thing left to question is price action, which will ironically leave doubters in denial.

While it's impossible to predict when Ethereum will steal the limelight, it's clear that its time is imminent (not financial advice). Throughout the year, there have been minor rotations from Bitcoin to Ethereum to altcoins, but since hitting the lows, no major shift has occurred yet. Though it's early to expect institutions to file spot ETFs for Ethereum, in the world of crypto, nothing is off the table. As long as Ethereum remains relatively unnoticed in the crypto community and beyond, I'll hold onto my bullish outlook. Ethereum remains the undisputed leader in decentralized finance, comfortably reigning supreme in its domain.