We will continue to see a weak market, other than short-term narrative driven pumps untill the ETH ETF decision 23th of May.

So, what are the options and what will rhe aftermath be?

There are basicly 4 outcomes:

◽️ETF gets accepted: highly unlikely maybe even impossible. BTC ETF was rejected/post-poned 20 times between 2018-2013. So, elaborating on this doesnt make much sense.

◽️ ETF gets rejected: This will most likely be the case as every statement by the SEC / insiders are hinting towards it. However, imo this is already priced in as everyone is expecting this outcome. When the actual news/outcome is a fact, I am expecting that to mark the bottom and money will start to flow in again. DeFi might be the one to catch up the most as it has been heavily lagging.

◽️ETF gets post-poned: this is the most bullish case as it will mean that the doors for it are not fully closed. It can cause a massive surge in ETH, with rotation to alts after that. However, this is also highly unlikely.

◽️The worst case scenario would be a rejection + releasing a statement that ETH and all PoS based coins are considered as a security rather than a commodity. This outcome remains possible, albeit less likely imo. Recent statements by Consensys have shown that they are preparing a massive case to sue the SEC regarding their actions towards cryptocurrencies. In the end, SEC will lose the case, just like the case against Ripple, but it will definitely boost the uncertainty in the market. However, after the initial sell-off across whole market, I would expect a slow recover as more and more will gather to sue the SEC.

In such case, I am expecting a surge in coins that is related to #BTC  (layer 2, ordinals / runes etc) and PoW based Layer 1. So keep an eye on those.

What the outcome will be, nobody never knows, but uncertainty untill the ETF decision is certain.

Don’t be lazy.

The biggest mistake you can make is being lazy, meaning, never doing due diligence.

Please don’t take actions based just on some tweets you see.

Rather:

- Take fuc*ing 5 mins and read that blog/announcement/whitepaper

- Check for other opinions, not just one

- Talk it out with a friend if you have it (if not, I’m always available in DMs)

If you are not going to do that, you won’t be able to make it in the long run.

Now the question, did I motivate you enough to do more due diligence from now on?