$ARB PRICE SCENARIOS π¦ π΅
Investor price* β Market Cap 85M - ARB $0.07
Pessimistic β Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate β Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic β Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic π β Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
@Arbitrum Thread 𧡠- Let's estimate π§
$ARB is launching in 6 days
Snapshot Date: Feb 6th 2023
Many active DeFi got this airdrop (12% of the total supply)
How much could $ARB be worth a few days after launch?
1/18
Arbitrum One is the biggest Ethereum Layer2 blockchain in the space, by TVL and market share
β’ Market share: 55%
β’ TVL: $3.7B
2/18
Today we will roughly try to estimate $ARB price valuation a few days after launch - after the dust settles. By using:
β’ Total & initial circulating supply
β’ Market Benchmarks
β’ Percentage airdropped
3/18
TOKENOMICS
β’ Team & Advisors: 26.94%
β’ Investors: 17.53%
β’ Treasury: 42.78%
β’ Airdrop to users: 11.62%
β’ Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs: 1.13%
4/18
TOKEN SUPPLY
β’ Total supply: 10B tokens (10,000,000,000)
β’ Circulating supply on 1st day: roughly 1.2B (1,200,000,000)
~12% of total supply
User airdrop is immediately unlocked. It's safe to assume that Airdrop to Arbitrum DAOs will not enter the market right away
5/18
AIRDROP CRITERIA
β’ Conducting transactions during 2-9 distinct months
β’ Transaction frequency & interactionΒ (4-100)
β’ Arbitrum Nova activity: 3-10 transactions
β’ Bridging to Arbitrum & Arbitrum Nova
β’ Transaction value: $10k-$250k
β’ Providing liquidity: $10k-$250k
6/18
π Check your eligibility here: arbitrum.foundation
π¨ Careful with scam links, always get your link from @Arbitrum twitter
Now, let's try to make scenarios for $ARB's price π
7/18
FDV AND MARKET CAP MEANING
β’ Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) = total supply * token price
β’ Market cap = circulating supply * token price
With $ARB numbers:
FDV = 10B * token price
Market cap = 1.2B * token price
Token price = β
8/18
SPECULATING INVESTOR'S PRICE
According to Crunchbase, Offchain Labs raised 120M.
Investors are getting ~17% of the token supply, which is around 1.7B tokens.
If they bought 1.7B tokens for $120M, then that's around $0.07 per ARB. Pure speculation π
9/18
The best benchmarks for $ARB are Optimism and Polygon, but we can also work with other chains. Let's compare:
β’ Polygon $MATIC
β’ Optimism $OP
β’ Fantom $FTM
β’ Solana $SOL
10/18
Optimism $OP - the 2nd biggest Ethereum L2
β’ TVL: $950 million (DefiLlama)
β’ FDV: $10.8 billion
β’ Market cap: $800 million
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.08
11/18
Polygon $MATIC
β’ TVL: null.05 billion
β’ FDV: $11.8 billion
β’ Market cap: $10.7 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.18
12/18
Fantom $FTM
β’ TVL: $445 million
β’ FDV: null.4 billion
β’ Market cap: null.2 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~$0.14
13/18
Solana $SOL
β’ TVL: $245 million
β’ Market cap: $7.7 billion
β’ FDV: $10.9 billion
If $ARB had this FDV, its price would be ~null.09
14/18
Summarizing:
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $OP: null.08
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $MATIC: null.18
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $FTM: $0.14
β’ $ARB with the FDV of $SOL: null.09
15/18
If the market prices ARB at the same level as OP and MATIC (~10B FDV) then token price could be ~null.00
In contrast, for ARB price to be $3.00, its FDV needs to be 3 times the size of OP's.
Yes, Arbitrum has two times Optimism's TVL, but I don't know if that is enough.
16/18
PRICE SCENARIOS
Pessimistic β Market Cap 360M - ARB $0.30
Moderate β Market Cap 780M - ARB $0.65
Optimistic β Market Cap 1.4B - ARB null.20
Ecstatic π β Market Cap 3.0B - ARB $2.50
17/18
The first hours of trading will probably be a mess, so expect volatility.
These numbers are just a price iteration and comparison to what's already out there. I don't expect them to make sense the first day of trading.
18/18
LIQUIDITY
Remember Optimism partnered with Wintermute for liquidity on $OP launch; we should wait to see how Arbitrum does it. I think they will surely take care of initial liquidity.
At which price would you sell $ARB?
β‘οΈ Join me on Telegram for lightning-fast alpha notifications: t.me/OlimpioAlpha
π₯ Also, lots of DeFi and Airdrop talk is going on inside Earndrop's server, join here: earndrop.io/discord
Index Coop Diversified Staked ETH Index
Index Coop introduces a diversified staked ETH index. Compound activates its V3 WETH market. Circle releases its Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol documentation. And RAI explores multi-collateral RAI without governance.
0:00 Intro
0:33 Index Coop Diversified Staked ETH Index
1:47 Compound V3 WETH Market Goes Live
2:32 Circle Releases Cross-Chain Protocol Docs
3:15 GearBox Discusses GUSD Depeg Preparedness
3:59 Multi-Collateral RAI Without Governance
4:47 Fin
ποΈ Podcast - pod.link/eth
π§ Email - ethdaily.substack.com
π₯ Video - youtube.com/@ethdaily
πΏ Lens - lenster.xyz/u/ethdaily
π¦ Twitter - twitter.com/ethdaily
#IndexCoop #Staked #ETH
Airdrop Confirmed: GammaX Exchange Testnet πͺ
2Birds1Stone: Gammax Exchange, a protocol built on StarkEX technology πΊ
Testnet information and how to potentially get their airdrop. Strategy:
β‘οΈπ§΅
1/9
What is GammaX?
β’ Orderbook-based perp DEX that uses StarkEX technology
β’ Investors: StarkWare, KyberVentures
β’ Current state: closed beta
2/9
Features
β’ Order-book DEX model
β’ Referral program
β’ StarkEX technology is how dYdX was implemented before they moved to Cosmos
(perp - a platform to buy & sell derivative contracts)
3/9
Is the token confirmed?
β’ Airdrop was announced
β’ They launched a points-based system (a pre-token program for the community)
Full info: π gammax.exchange/learn-crypto-trading-earn-pre-token-gamma-points
4/9
How can you earn points?
You can earn points by:
β’ Entering through my ref link (200 points for both of us) π t.co/bP2uGBu6f1
β’ Inviting others with your own referral link (200 points per person)
β’ Answering quizzes (more than 3000 points to be earned) π
5/9
You can also earn points by participating in community events π
GammaX has bug bounties, trading competitions, and AMA sessions coming up
6/9
And don't forget the Testnet itself
Right now, GammaX is on a "closed testnet", where some users have access to test and report bugs.
This gets you more points
7/9
How to get whitelisted for GammaX Testnet?
Sign up with my ref link: π t.co/bP2uGBu6f1 (200 points for each)
No ref link: π t.co/9VViG56nyn
You will get an email when you have access. Ask for the role in discord so you can enter testnet private channels!
8/9
Alpha: they are giving out the testnet spots during community calls.
Try to attend & get one.
You will get an email with an invitation then.
9/9
What can you do once you've been whitelisted to their Testnet?
β’ Set buy & sell market orders
β’ Put limit/stop positions
β’ Trade with leverage
And more below.
I will update when there's more info β‘οΈ
ETH Daily - 16th January 2022 π°
Read more: ethdaily.substack.com/p/numoen-introduces-power-tokens?utm_source=lens&utm_medium=social&utm_id=503