💥 A crucial time for the crypto market 💥
Bitcoin just broke downward the macro range in which it has been trading since early March and is at a major crossroad.
The break of the fundamental support at 60,200 had already happened on May 1, so why should this time be different?
Two key elements stand out:
📈 THE SMA 182
For the first time since the last bear market (excluding a congestion bar from Aug 17 to Oct 16, 2023), Bitcoin is trading below the long-term SMA 182. This could signal a new congestion bar flattening the SMA 182, or the start of a bear market pushing prices to 38-40k.
🌱 THE ACCUMULATION GREENLINE
On Dec 18, 2023, I had drawn a green line indicating a healthy buy-and-hold slope. Today's break occurred as this green line entered the macro range, aligning with the SMA 182's slope. The combined strength of these lines is a crucial price reference.
🤷♂️ CONCLUSIONS
Watching the price's slope will help us determine if we are entering a bear market (Scenario 1), a congestion bar phase (Scenario 2), or if (Scenario 3) a big spring is charging over the support of the two trend lines, ready for another jump — seems unlikely? Personally, I tend toward this hypothesis!