Massive news today: Shanghai Upgrade date confirmed 📆 ⚡️
• 16.5M ETH has been staked so far (~30B USD)
• 25% solo stakers. 30% LIDO. 12% Coinbase.
• Date: 12 April, 2023
🧵 Thread: How do ETH withdrawals work? Who are the stakers? Can all of this affect ETH price?
1/11
• What is the Shangai Upgrade? The road so far
As you know, with The Merge ETH migrated from POW to POS.
In POS, ETH is staked to secure the network. People have been staking ETH since December 2020.
2/11
• What is the Shangai Upgrade? The road so far
Up until now, stake ETH was one-way. Stakers could not withdraw it.
However, LSD solutions such as Lido appeared and allowed people to mint tokens such as stETH which are close to 1:1 trading, enabling staked ETH liquidity.
3/11
• What is the Shangai Upgrade?
The Ethereum network is set to upgrade in Apr 12th 2023.
The upgrade will bring changes to the network, including the ability to withdraw staked ETH, worth 30B USD.
Not all ETH would be able to be withdrawn at once.
4/11
• Who are the stakers?
Lido: 29%
Solo stakers: 25%
Coinbase: 12%
Kraken: 7.5%
Binance: 6.1%
Others: 20.4%
5/11
• How much ETH will be withdrawn?
Not all 15M ETH can be withdrawn at once. There is a queue for validators to gradually unlock it.
There are two types of withdrawals, partial and full.
6/11
• Withdrawal types
-
Partial: only interests out, not capital (staked ETH). Maximum amount of ETH possible to be taken is 1M or 1.6B USD
-
Full: interests + capital. Rate limited to only 54,000 ETH/day
(7 validators/epoch. 225 epochs/day) | (2460)/6.47*32 = 54,000
7/11
• Sell pressure
With 50,400 max ETH withdrawable per day, that's 80M maximum potential sell pressure daily.
Last 24hs ETH trading volume was 9B according to CoinGecko.
80M is less than 1% ETH's last 24hs trading volume.
8/11
• LSD = Liquid Staking Derivatives
We also need to consider that ~57% of ETH stakers have liquid access to their ETH thanks to solutions like Lido or Rocketpool.
So these people could have sold long ago, they did not have to wait until April 12 like the other 43%
9/11
• ETH issuance in POW?
Before The Merge, block reward was 2.2 ETH per block. At an AVG rate of 15 seconds/block, that is around 11,500 ETH per day.
10/11
Some of the information from this thread was taken from this report by Binance Research: 🔗 research.binance.com/en/analysis/ethereum-shanghai-upgrade
And Dune: 🔗 dune.com/hildobby/eth2-staking
11/11
Final thoughts on Shanghai
• The Shanghai Upgrade is a crucial step in the development of the Ethereum network.
• It might cause some price movement in the short term, but for me it is bullish for the ecosystem long term.
ETH has been deflationary in the last 7 days.
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