Potential impact of US election results on crypto markets
The outcome of the U.S. election could have a significant impact on the digital asset industry. The next president and Congress could enact legislation targeting cryptocurrencies and could make changes to tax and spending policies that affect broader financial markets.
Current polling data and implied odds from prediction markets such as Polymarket suggest that this is a tight race. However, as of October 15, these data suggest that Republican control of the Senate appears likely. Grayscale Research believes that a change in Senate control could be particularly relevant to cryptocurrencies, given the Senate’s role in confirming presidential appointments to key regulators such as the chairmen of the SEC and CFTC.
However, at the voter level, data shows that cryptocurrencies are a bipartisan issue of concern, with Democrats having slightly higher rates of Bitcoin ownership than Republicans. Additionally, specific candidates from both parties have expressed support for cryptocurrency innovation.
Regardless of which party is in control, Grayscale Research believes that comprehensive bipartisan legislation could be the best long-term solution for the U.S. digital asset industry.
Despite the many issues surrounding the 2024 U.S. election, the digital asset industry has captured some of the candidates’ time and attention. This can be attributed in part to the changing preferences of voters: in a national survey conducted by Harris Poll on behalf of Grayscale, we found that about half of likely U.S. voters were more likely to vote for a candidate who was interested in crypto than for one who was not. The growing focus on crypto also reflects the fact that U.S. rulemaking lags behind other countries, even as the industry continues to grow and innovate, making comprehensive legislation more urgent.
Below we consider potential election scenarios for the White House and Congress and their likely impact on crypto markets. For each outcome, we report the implied odds from Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market that has seen a sharp increase in adoption this year.
Most outcomes are highly uncertain: both polling data and prediction markets suggest a highly divided race. However, the data suggest that a shift in control of the Senate (from Democrats to Republicans) seems likely, which could be a particularly relevant change with direct implications for the cryptocurrency industry given the Senate’s role in confirming presidential appointments.
The upshot: A Trump victory could mean more supportive regulators and a larger budget deficit, both of which could provide a boost for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. But Trump’s fiscal policy plans would require congressional support, and tariffs could create market uncertainty.
The next president will set the cryptocurrency policy agenda, nominate key regulators, and drive broader economic policy decisions about taxes, spending, and tariffs. Former President Trump enthusiastically embraced the digital asset industry, expressing his desire to make the United States the "cryptocurrency and Bitcoin capital of the world." He also announced the launch of a cryptocurrency lending platform called World Liberty Financial, although details about the project remain limited.
Vice President Harris recently made more supportive comments about digital assets, explaining that her administration will "encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors." According to media reports, her campaign will also announce plans to "protect" crypto assets and develop "a plan to establish rules for cryptocurrencies and other digital assets."
However, the Harris campaign provided fewer specific details, and it is worth noting that, as seen by some market participants and commentators in the cryptocurrency industry, the current Biden/Harris administration has taken an adversarial approach to industry regulation, including through a series of lawsuits, restricting access to traditional banking services, and vetoing bipartisan legislation. Therefore, Grayscale Research believes that the Trump administration is more likely to nominate regulators interested in supporting innovation in the crypto industry.
BTC futures contracts open positions increased by 12% in the past 10 days
According to Trader T monitoring, on August 22, BTC futures contracts open positions increased by 12% in the past 10 days:
-CME: increased by 9.3%
-Binance: increased by 12.5%
Constant negative funding rate:
-Binance was -0.035% in the past 7 days
It also said that many short positions have begun to accumulate. With the shrinking trading volume, short squeeze (price surge) may be imminent.
The simplest understanding of ZK technology
What are the characteristics of ZK technology? If you want to know what the coolest privacy protection technology in the world is, it is ZK technology! This technology allows you to prove that you know something without revealing any information, just like you are proving to others that you have money, but you don’t need to show the other party all your bank account information. In this way, your privacy is protected, and you don’t have to worry about your information being leaked. This is really a great technology!
The future of ZK technology looks like a starry sky lighting up the night sky of the blockchain world. This technology is bringing unparalleled privacy protection and scalability, making the application scope of blockchain wider.
According to various forecasts and analyses, ZK technology will become one of the mainstream technologies in the blockchain field in the next few years. It will help solve the challenges of scalability and privacy protection currently faced by blockchain.
However, before achieving this goal, ZK technology still needs to solve some technical problems, including increasing verification speed and reducing costs. Solving these problems will require additional research and development work.
The developers of SLERF Memecoin burned the liquidity pool and 500 million token specified to pre -sale participants today. The project has successfully raised more than $ 10 million during the pre -sale period.
On the weekend, the project is one of the many Memecoin based on Solana, which has attracted millions of cryptocurrency enthusiasts through pre -sale activities.
During this period, unknown NFTEF DEKADENTE raised SOL worth more than $ 30 million by pre -sale of Memecoin named Smole. Similarly, another NFT artist named Kero raised more than $ 10 million through their Memecoin Nap.
Cryptocurrency researcher 0xgumshoe revealed that the community has invested approximately $ 100 million in pre -sale of Solana Memecoin.
In addition, Memecoin's boom has promoted Sorana's decentralized transaction volume to reach a record high, and the popularity of Solana blockchain on Google has now exceeded Ethereum.
What is pre -sale?
Generally, pre -sale allows investors to send cryptocurrencies to the specified wallet address to exchange weighted distribution after the issue of the currency. However, participating in pre -sale does not guarantee token distribution.
With the accidental success of The Book of Meme (BOME) tokens, the popularity of pre -sale has soared significantly, and its value has increased significantly by more than 1,000%. This surge has led to a large number of such token transactions on each exchange including Binance.
As of press time, the market value after BOME was completely diluted was about $ 1 billion.
Although the pre -sale model has achieved obvious success, Ethereum expert Anthony Sassano described it as "bidding Ponzi scam".
He said: "People can use their own money to do what they want to do, but it is very stupid to send money to" Memecoin pre -sale "."
Alert
Unfortunately, the uncertainty of the pre -sale method has made it a way to use an unwilling investor.
Cryptocurrency detective Zachxbt on the chain calls on people to pay attention to those "scammers" accounts that take advantage of the community. The data on the chain shows that a account marked by him has raised about 4,935.55 SOL, worth about $ 1 million to purchase Memecoin, which has not yet been released.