Q1 ECI came in a touch firmer than expected, while March headline and core PCE inflation largely in line. Personal income and spending for March a bit higher than expected. Final Michigan consumer sentiment (and inflation expectations) little changed from initial reading. Data fit with widely expected 25 bp rate hike from the Fed next week. Pretty quiet from a headline perspective. Some focus on Reuters report that regulators working with banks to help put a rescue package together for FRC, though CNBC said most likely scenario was receivership. Politico said White House does not feel pressure to come to the bargaining table on debt ceiling following Republican passage of their bill. Fed's report on SVB collapse recommended stronger bank supervision and regulation.

AMZN beat with better AWS growth, though flagged a 500 bp slowdown in AWS growth in April. XOM beat with downstream the tailwind. CVX also beat, though FCF disappointed. TMUS missed on subs. INTC beat but takeaways focused on low bar and still difficult fundamental backdrop. MDLZ beat and raised and flagged broad-based demand in both developed and emerging markets. AMGN missed on Otezla and Enbrel. CL latest consumer staple name to beat and raise. COF hit by higher provisions and faster credit normalization. FSLR missed on top and bottom line. NET down big on worsening sales cycles. PINS guidance underwhelmed. SNAP down big on weaker Q2 guidance and investment cycle concerns. NWL flagged weaker discretionary spending.

US equities higher Friday following a big Thursday rally. Major indexes mostly higher for the week. Energy, media/cable, autos, transports, travel & leisure, chemicals, paper/packaging, homebuilders, semis, HDDs, networking and select regional banks outperformed. Big tech trailed the tape with AMZN a drag. Steel, precious metals, beverages, utilities among the other laggards. Treasuries stronger across the curve with yields on track to end the week lower. Dollar index up 0.1% with post-BoJ yen weakness the big story in FX. Gold ended fractionally higher. Bitcoin futures off 1.7%. WTI crude settled up 2.7% but logged a weekly decline.

o Earnings continued to dominate the headlines. With over 50% of the S&P 500 having now reported, key earnings metrics still running above their one-year averages and corporate commentary still seems more supportive of a soft-landing scenario. However, not many other bullish talking points (though this dynamic has also come with a contrarian/FOMO spin). Debt ceiling stalemate (and potential for spending cuts out of Washington), dampened macro surprise momentum, recession signaling from deep curve inversion, collapsing money supply growth and tightening lending standards, margin contraction/reversion risk, higher-for-longer Fed, and bulled up systematic fund positioning still the big bearish talking points.

Among today's earnings, PG beat across all key segments and raised FY organic-growth guidance. HCA beat and raised with analysts positive on better volumes and controlled compensation expenses. CSX beat despite difficult macro backdrop with takeaways positive on pricing power, cost control and improved network fluidity. Street positive on meaningful margin expansion at PPG while company also flagged easing supply chain pressures. KNX missed, cut FY guidance, and noted truckload demand has remained weak through April. ALV highlighted sales growth but saw softer OM. VMI beat and raised with focus on strong irrigation results. OZK beat with lending a bright spot. CNXN negatively preannounced, noting weak macro backdrop led its customers to exercise greater caution and selectivity with their short-term IT investment plans.

Not a lot in the headlines today. April US global flash PMIs came in ahead of consensus for both services and manufacturing. Release noted sharp increase in output, stronger demand conditions, and uptick in new orders. In addition, prices saw sharpest increase since last September. Bloomberg reported McCarthy does not have the Republican votes to pass his debt ceiling plan; had been thoughts a vote could be scheduled for next week but that is uncertain. Elsewhere, Fed's latest balance sheet update showed that discount window and BTFP loans ticked higher. Money market funds saw third biggest outflow on record. Lot of headlines about White House plans to limit investment in key parts of China's economy by US businesses. Consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, initial claims and Q1 GDP some of the highlights on the economic calendar next week.

Market continued to deal with a lot of moving pieces and conflicting signals. Fed seemingly the biggest area of debate with hawkish Fedspeak reiterating the higher-for-longer mantra while market expecting a quick pivot in 2H. Soft landing supported by strong labor market, consumer resilience and housing rebound. However, hard landing underpinned by magnitude and velocity of the tightening cycle. Tight corporate bond spreads a signal for the soft landing camp. Also some focus on slow post-pandemic credit normalization. Deep curve inversion, collapsing money supply growth, contractionary ISM manufacturing readings and leading indicators the key signals for the hard landing camp. Earnings another area of debate as growth expected to resume in Q3, while the more bearish strategists see 10-20% downside risk to consensus estimates. Some 180 S&P constituents scheduled to report next week.

US equities finished slightly higher in somewhat choppy and directionless Friday trading. Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished lower for the week. Sectors were mixed but, once again, fairly bunched. HPCs (PG), hospitals (HCA), pharma, biotech, telecom, restaurants, and travel/tourism were some of the outperformers. Big tech mostly lower but AMZN had a good day. Banks, global miners, industrial metals, building materials, auto parts, semis, energy, insurance, chemicals, A&D and China tech were among the weaker spots. Treasuries weaker across the curve, with yields ending up for the week. Dollar was a bit weaker on the yen and euro crosses. Gold ended down 1.4%, back below $2,000/oz. Bitcoin futures were down 3.6%. WTI crude settled up 0.6% but still posted a 5.8% decline this week.

Busy day of corporate updates. TSLA cut Model 3 and Model Y prices for second time this month ahead of earnings after the close today. NFLX Q2 guidance light on delayed rollout of paid sharing though company remained upbeat on monetization initiatives. ABT beat on Medical Devices strength. MS missed on GMW margins and NII, but takeaways were mixed and stock ended higher. UAL guided EPS up for Q2 and talked up strong demand environment. CDW negatively preannounced on heightened macro uncertainty. ASML beat but also flagged some signs of caution among customers. ISRG reported strongest procedure growth in a decade and raised FY guidance. TRV beat and raised. SNAP announced it has more than 3M paid subscribers. USB was helped by better PPNR and guide. SYF was a low-bar beneficiary and left guide unchanged. WAL was up big on better core results and signs of deposit flow stabilization.