li
Liu060753@90600·Jul 12

There is no eternal track, only changes in investment paradigms.

The investment in the first half of 2023 has not become better due to the market shocks in the past year.

Although the Shanghai Composite Index recorded positive returns during the year, investors' experience was not good. This is because the popular investment paradigms "DCF deterministic premium" and "boom investment" have failed one after another from 2019 to 2021, and industries such as new energy, medicine, and consumption have experienced corrections to varying degrees, and only central enterprises, technology, and other sectors have performed well.

In fact, not only A-shares, but global stock markets also showed similar characteristics in the first half of the year. Safe dividend assets and technology growth assets with more deterministic trends rose intertwined and performed strongly. (Data source: Wind, data as of 2023.6.30)

Post by @90600.lens
  • li
    Liu060753@90600·Jul 12

    Behind the abnormal performance of the capital market, it means that a new investment paradigm is being established.

    In this regard, GF Securities pointed out in the research report that the appearance of the new global investment paradigm is to embrace "certain assets". The essence of the long-term certainty of the technological innovation cycle is to give a continuous premium to certain assets.

    And this is quite consistent with the asset allocation idea of "barbell strategy" proposed by Nicholas Taleb in the book "Antifragility: Benefiting from Uncertainty", that is, investing in a small number of high-yield and high-volatility assets and Most of the low-risk assets with certainty, and give up the inefficient medium-yield investment.

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